Coronavirus and its credit effects on companies. Credit Conditions and Information about industries— Auto, Aviation, Construction, Capital Goods, Chemicals, and Commodities.
- We now project a deeper GDP decline this year for most emerging market economies, mostly due to the worsening pandemic and a steeper fall in exports. Our forecast is for the average emerging market GDP (excluding China) to contract 4.7% this year, and then to grow 5.9% next year.
- The 2020 global corporate default tally has reached 132, and has surpassed the 2008 full-year total of 127 defaults but remains below the 2009 year-to-date tally of 175. The oil and gas sector has the most number of defaults so far this year, with a total of 23.
- For banks across the globe, we forecast credit losses of about $2.1 trillion for this year and next spurred by the pandemic, with $1.3 trillion this year–more than double the 2019 level. While around 60% of the forecast credit losses will arise in Asia-Pacific, the highest relative increases–more than double on average compared with 2019–will occur in North America and Western Europe.”